http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/08/opinion/08iht-edbremmer08.html?_r=0

With the uncertainty of China’s rise, tensions between the United States and China have increased.  Some have predicted a “new form of Cold-War style confrontation”.  However, this is not likely because of the United States and China’s economic interdependence.  The tensions between the two states will not escalate into a serious conflict because of the commercial peace between the two. 

Countries that trade more with each other are less likely to fight wars with each other because trade between countries makes war more costly and increases the size of the bargaining range.  Trade can make leaders less risk-inclined.  “With trillions invested in U.S. treasuries…China has a huge stake in a more robust U.S. recovery.  And the prospect of a rapidly growing consumer sector in China creates enormous opportunities for American agriculture and industry” (Gordon). 

Serious conflict between China and the US would not benefit either country and a “Cold-War style confrontation” is not favorable either since both economies are so reliant on each other.  A negative impact on the US’ economy will result in a negative impact on China’s economy and the possibility of “mutually assured economic destruction” is enough incentive to avoid the escalations of any tensions.   

Although critics of the commercial peace argue that trade can generate new frictions between countries, this will not affect the China-US relationship because of the extent of the economic interdependence of the two states.   

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141987/robin-simcox/isis-worst-nightmare

In this article titled “ISIS’ Worst Nightmare”, Robin Simcox argues against the idea that the US intervening militarily with the ISIS crisis would rally public support for the terrorist group and “bolster the jihadists’ narrative”, and instead believes that increased military efforts in Iraq would be “ISIS’ Worst Nightmare”.  

Although Simcox argues correctly that ISIS probably is not trying to provoke an attack from the US and that US’ military involvement in Iraq would be extremely detrimental to the terrorist group, it would nonetheless aid ISIS propaganda and increase the anti-West and anti-American sentiment in the Middle East, “especially if there are civilian casualties”, which are hard to avoid.  After the drawn out Iraq war, Iraqi civilians have a very low level of trust for the United States.  According to polls conducted by Shibley Telhami, the general consensus in Iraq and some Arab states regarding the Iraq war is that Bush used the pretense of democracy as a means to justify an unpopular war.  Arabs did not believe that the United State’s efforts to bring democracy to Iraq was sincere.  This may also be due to the history of previous presidents advocating for democracy and then putting it aside when other strategic priorities arose.  This distrust towards the United States will be heightened if the US pursues a higher level of military force because of the underlying assumptions of the Iraqi people and Arabs that the US’ intentions are not sincere.